Fenix 8: reaffirming Garmin's doom

(My previous entry): Apple Watch Ultra: Yes, Garmin is doomed

Fenix 8 announced

Garmin announced the most recent iteration of their Fenix line this week: the Fenix 8.

Garmin makes great fitness watches and the Fenix 8 seems like a nice high-end fitness smartwatch. Many YouTube reviewers immediately posted (nearly identical) reviews raving about the same set of features (from Garmin’s PR kit).

If someone likes the Garmin ecosystem, or needs a fitness watch that can survive an ultra marathon, all other considerations aside, the Fenix continues to be a good product for that.

So, as a user, I really have no issue with the Fenix 8. It’s a nice product for what it is.

Buuuuuuuutttt…..

As an investor and technologist, this watch reaffirms that Garmin is doomed¹.

The development perspective… again

As I mentioned in my prior post, Garmin’s developer story is non-existent. Their application SDK and monetization are so limited that there’s not much to do with it. But, even if a developer could work within those limitations, the Garmin doesn’t have as large of an addressable market. WatchOS has an installed base of over a hundred million, and WearOS maybe tens of millions.

As a professional developer, Garmin is a non-starter. But what does that mean for you, a user? For users, this will increasingly be an issue.

Consider my own path. I first bought a Forerunner in 2013, and I only wore it when I ran. Now I wear an Apple Watch Ultra, which I spent 6x more on compared to my Forerunner 110. I wear it 24/7, so I want it to be more useful than just for workouts.

My watch should have my boarding pass or transit card, have the live UV index, automatically download my podcasts, buzz on my wrist when to turn while I’m navigating on carplay, show me my home thermostat, add stuff to the shared family shopping list, or…. you know…

…actually provide different fitness apps! Garmin has whatever Garmin has built-in. WatchOS and WearOS have hundreds of different fitness apps. Strava, Peloton, Workoutdoors, Slopes, SmartGym, TrainingPeaks, etc..

Now maybe you think this isn’t an issue, and the Garmin’s lack of apps is fine for the needs of most uses. Sure. However, it can’t stand forever. Eventually, buying a Garmin will be like buying a Windows Phone. Great if you want the built-in Microsoft apps, not so much if you want popular apps.

The price

Garmin’s new prices are truly insane. There’s no other word.

The Fenix 8 merges the Epix (AMOLED) line into the Fenix (MIP) line, and adds some voice stuff (with the help of your phone, since it’s just bluetooth, not on-device), but otherwise it’s a minor incremental hardware bump at best. Most of the improvements are in the software. Despite this, new Fenixes cost anywhere from $100-$300 more vs. their comparable Epix 2 or Fenix 7, which are still available to buy.

The Fenix E, the “budget model”, is $800, same as the Apple Watch Ultra 2, which is Apple’s highest end model.

Look, Garmin has a great fitness brand–and their built-in fitness features are mostly better than Apple–but their brand is not strong enough to overcome this ridiculous pricing. Compared to the Apple Watch or Samsung or Pixel watch, these are less functional as smarwatches, with less accurate fitness measurement than Apple². Worse, compared to Garmin’s watches from a month ago, they are hundreds of dollars more expensive without notable new features. This makes no sense. Garmin are alienating their own customers, as described on this reddit discussion.

Keep your old Fenix and just buy Apple in the future.

I’m not sure what I was expecting from Garmin here. Maybe I had hoped they would adopt WearOS like I suggested, but they’ve gone the opposite direction of sensibility. I bought my Apple Watch Ultra almost two years ago, it cost 30% less than the Fenix 8, same as the Fenix E, and is far more functional. I have to charge it more, that’s the only downside I guess.

If you are a current Garmin user, just keep your old watch. It’s fine. You don’t need the new features. But if you do need a new Fenix because you run ultras or something, I agree completely with Mark Lewis, just get Fenix 6 over the 8. The 6 is a great watch that has the battery life you’d need for recording an ultra.

If you want a watch and don’t have one, then get Apple Watch. If you don’t have an iPhone, just buy one of those too. An Apple Watch SE + an iPhone SE ($750) is cheaper than the Fenix E ($800). Want the high end? get the iPhone 15 Pro and Apple Watch Ultra 2. That’d be $1800 all in, but if you’re already spending $1100, what’s another $700 for a top of the line Apple Watch + iPhone? Or you can probably get them “free” from your mobile provider.

Does that sound crazy? To me, it seems like a less ridiculous suggestion than spending $1100 for a minor upgrade to Garmin’s Fenix watch lineup, while getting a generally less useful (in smartwatch features) wrist device than the Apple Watch SE. Buying a Fenix 8 is like buying Louis Vuitton. It’s all for show now.

For investors: Garmin’s Outdoor business segment (which includes Epix, Fenix and Enduro) has had flat growth for 3 years. It’s still their most profitable segment. As an investor, do you think they are going to grow this by raising prices and offering a minor bump on functionality, mostly software? If so, I wish you luck.

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